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SIMPROCESS SOLUTIONS
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LEGEND:
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Case Study
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Demonstration Model
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HTML - Output of the Model
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BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT
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Reducing Passenger Wait Time Using Simulation Modeling and Optimization Algorithms
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Description:
Passenger & carry-on screening workflow - this aspect of the airport security operations was modeled based on data made available by knowledge experts. In this presentation we discuss the application of simulation modeling and optimization techniques to reduce the time a passenger spends waiting in line pre-screening (wait time = 15 minutes for = 80% of passengers per day) by analyzing the workforce requirements during peak hours. Non-linear optimization algorithms were used to generate multiple workforce solutions (data points) based on the passenger wait time and workforce capacity constraints.
Objectives:
To monitor the time a passenger spends in line pre-screening
Wait time = 15 minutes for = 80% of passengers per day
To generate an optimal workforce mix that alleviates passenger wait time during peak hours
To asses the impact on security operations during breeches
Process aspects measured by simulation:
The time a passenger spends waiting in line
Workforce productivity
Process aspects minimized by non-linear optimization techniques:
The time a passenger spends waiting in line by generating multiple workforce scheduling alternatives
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Demonstration Model
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HTML - Output of the Model
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BUSINESS PROCESS MENU
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Creating a Paperless Municipal Court
Client: City of Beaverton (COB) Municipal Court (MC)
Project Statement:
The City of Beaverton (COB) Municipal Court (MC) was experiencing growing pains associated with its current business practices and the introduction of a new source of citations, Photo Radar. The Court had experienced an average increase of 19.5% in total cases filed and projected a conservative annual increase of 14%. It was estimated that Photo Radar citations were going to increase the Court's workload by an additional 14,000 to 21,000 citations a year. These volumes exceeded the capacity of the Municipal Court staff and their current processes and systems.
The Municipal Court staff felt they required additional resources and space to provide customers with an acceptable level of service. The workload volumes were stretching staff capacity, forcing them to frequently work overtime. The core processes were paper-driven. Computer systems support was limited and not being fully utilized because of a technology-fearful staff.
The City engaged CACI, Inc. (CACI) to conduct a Business Process Improvement (BPI) analysis and implementation plan for the Municipal Court. The goal of this effort was to understand the Municipal Court's business needs, model and simulate the "As Is" state, develop a "To Be" simulation model, and use the simulation model to sell the City Council the recommended solutions which will significantly improved the Municipal Court operation. The implementation plan addressed the costs, benefits, and actions associated with implementing the proposed solution.
CACI Services Involvement:
The CACI team consisted of one CACI Program Manager and one Certified Management Consultant.
SIMPROCESS was used to plan a phased migration from a traditional municipal court to a paperless court. The simulation model was also used to provide the financial justification, communication of the concept, and plan staffing for the revised operational procedures.
Deliverables:
CACI was contracted to study the "As Is" state, develop a "To Be" simulation model, and then use the simulation model to sell the City Council the recommended solutions.
Results:
As a result of the 1996 BPI analysis, CACI found the Municipal Court required a solution to:
- Provide users quick, easy, and reliable access to current documents
- Ensure document completeness and accuracy
- Address formal procedures and technologies
CACI recommended the implementation of a two-phased plan. Phase I - "Less Paper " would ready the Municipal Court for technology insertion by addressing quick hit improvement initiatives for benefits in:
- Manual records and filing facilities
- Automated information systems
- Office facilities
- Work flow
- Scheduling
The BPI Analysis projected the City's annual cost savings would be between $33,000 - $100,000 with the implementation of Phase I - "Less Paper". Benefits of Phase I include:
- Reduced citation processing (search, retrieval, docketing) by 9%
- Gain 0.6 Court Clerk FTE
- Increase the Court's capacity to process citations, including Photo Radar
- Ready the Court for new technology and processes
Phase II - "Paperless" implementation would save the City between $100,000 - $250,000 per year after the solution is firmly established. Benefits of the IDM system include:
- Reduced citation processing by 35%
- Gain 2.1 Court Clerk FTE
- Improved customer service by decreasing citation search and retrieval by 20% - 50%
- Increased citation processing (capture, retention, display, and printing of document images) capacity by 78%
- Eliminate risk of document loss through systematic document archival
- Reusable service delivery solution (intra-City or inter-government)
Phase III - "Less Paper" incremental savings would be addressed as "soft" savings since no "hard" data was collected for the Jan-97 implementation. This analysis would measure the Phase II - "Paperless" implementation and address the following key questions:
- What actually changed as a result of the consulting project and did it have an impact on the Municipal Court?
- Was the consulting project a good investment?
- Did the project drive key intangible measures, which are often difficult to quantify yet critical to the success of the Municipal Court?
- Does the Municipal Court require additional staff to support current and near future operations?
Future improvements include moving the Municipal Court WINCS online via the Internet. This Government-to-Citizen Internet link may include a site that gives both court information and the ability to pay fines by credit card or electronic check over the Internet 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, without increasing staffing levels or hours of court operations. This use of the Internet is attractive given the likely increase in case volumes with the introduction of Photo Red Light or the addition of more Photo Radar Vans. An online court payment system will allow the MC to collect a higher percentage of fines faster, while saving money currently spent on processing "walk-in" defendants.
The Municipal Court has begun to investigate a courtroom videoconferencing link with jails and juvenile detention facilities in another area. Videoconferencing can potentially save courts the cost of on prisoner transportation. Undoubtedly, the Municipal Court will continue to use SIMPROCESS models to analyze, communicate, and measure City investments.
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Demonstration Model - Justice System (Justice System.spm)
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HTML - Output Of The Model
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Hallmark Gift Manufacturer
Background:
The production of gift wrap from the initial artist's design to the final proofing before final printing was a cumbersome task, involving eight departments with diverse physical locations. Individual functions were isolated from one another. Poor communication between departments and a lack of understanding of other people's responsibilities resulted in an unacceptably high level of costly remakes.
Three primary goals:
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Reduce cycle time
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Reduce remakes
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Reduce production costs
They evaluated two approaches:
- The first involved integrating new digital engraving technology into the existing workflow, which would decrease costs within the 90-day cycle.
- The second approach considered was to reengineer the whole process and create a work team in order to reduce cycle time as well as cost. They decided upon the latter.
Solution:
In The existing process, there were eight vertical functions involved.
- The artist who conceives the design according to timing and season.
- The scanner who scans the artist's image and converts these images to four color film.
- The color proofer who looks at many proofs with different color layouts.
- The engineer who approves and oversees the color.
- The finisher who makes the image the proper size through cropping and nesting and makes sure that Santa Claus' feet are in tact.
- The step operator who takes the image from the finisher and 'steps' to proper cylinder size for printing.
- The cylinder maker who photo etches or engraves image onto cylinder.
- The engineer who proofs color and checks mechanics via "proof press"which is the actual sheet of gift wrap.
Gift wrap designs could loop through this cycle of people many times before going into final production. Moreover, even if the engineer realized that the image need a different color even before cylinder engraving, by the time the design made its way back to the scanner responsible for color, two months had passed and the design was no longer fresh in the scanner's mind. Even with the many proofings before cylindrical etching, a full 20% of all designs, which reached the final stage, had to be remade.
- The project manager set up a pilot team with a representative from each department. Using SIMPROCESS from CACI, they modeled, simulated, evaluated the existing operations and pinpointed areas for improvement.
- Secondly, they used simulation to develop something entirely new so that they could evaluate benefits before any investment was made and also to benchmark against traditional methods. The primary objective was to illustrate the conventional vs. proposed to management in relative and thus, accurate terms.
- Following the simulation, the team reasoned that the 13+ step process could be trimmed down to three steps. They created one workteam from all the existing departments, except for the artist who remained independent of the workteam. The workteam was installed in the same four walls, with a dedicated engineer on-hand full-time.
- Their motto became "make it right the first time" which meant that the engineer and scanner had to communicate closely to avoid designs being sent back later on down the line. Now that they had improved communication, they decided to tackle the mechanical problems arising from the imprecise nature of cylindrical etching.
- Etching designs on cylinders was a tricky process: too much heat for too much time would etch the design too deeply, too little heat or too little time would result in the opposite problem. To increase precision and eliminate the guesswork, the team introduced digital engraving which gave an exact specified depth and is, for all practical purposes, error-free.
Results:
Cycle time of 90+ days reduced to 8 days
Post-cylindrical remakes decreased by 50%
Overall production costs reduced by 10%
This case study highlights how extraordinary improvements can be achieved through very ordinary means. Using simulation, the team looked at what was happening, what could be happening and how they could make it happen. They re-organized the process on a functional level with only a minimal introduction of new technology. They realized that cycle times were long because of multiple remakes. There were multiple remakes because of poor communication between departments. Importantly, they also realized that the capabilities were already there for the scanner and engineer to work together more closely and it was just a matter of restructuring individual departments into a cohesive process team.
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Underwriting Administration New Business Process - A Modeling and Simulation Process Improvement Project
Client: International Life Insurance Company
Project Statement:
Use modeling and simulation to improve the Underwriting Process and improve the application cycle-time. The current process was taking several weeks to approve a new application. During this time premiums are not collected, thus each day process represents a day's premiums not collected.
How can modeling and simulation help make these types of business decision? It allows managers to use models to make better decisions based on predictions of how various controlling variables will influence the business system. These models represent complex business activities from a functional perspective, and focus on understanding and thus changing business practices.
A model mimics the operations of a business by stepping through the events in compressed time while displaying an animated picture of the flow. The simulation allows the manager to measure the processes, people, and technology within the model. The simulation model makes it possible for a manager to evaluate the company's current business practices and look for ways to improve them.
Within a simulation model, a manager can analyze time, cost, resources, throughput, capacity, and bottlenecks. The model also allows the manager to design and test improvements in resource allocation and system streamlining. Together with performance and financial data, these factors allow the manager to make informed business decisions.
CACI consultants followed their standard approach to modeling and simulation projects. The first step was to understand the current business environment by collecting system metrics (such as work schedules, hourly rates, number of applications per day, etc.) and talk to users of the current system. An "As-Is" model is then built showing life and disability applications being processed. This model undergoes verification and validation. The current cycle-time per application is believed to be three months with an issue rate of 77%. These numbers were used to check the behavior of the "As-Is" model.
Once the "As-Is" model is built, such questions can be answered such as:
- What is the application cycle-time?
- Where do delays occur in the system?
- What is the labor costs?
- What is the cost per application?
Once the "As-Is" model has been built and validated, the consultants began looking at various ways to improve the current business process. These improvements were incorporated into a new "To-Be" model that produced encouraging results.
CACI Services Involvement:
CACI consultants utilizing SIMPROCESS software to build the "As-Is" and "To-Be" models of this life insurance company's business practices.
Deliverables:
"As-Is" and "To-Be" simulation models built with SIMPROCESS software. Written documentation outlining the results of the project was also provided.
Results:
The "As-Is" model produced results that were similar to the predicted results. The average cycle time came out to 86 days (as compared to the predicted 90 days), and the application issue rate figured out to 76% (as compared to the predicted 77%). Therefore, the "As-Is" model was accepted as the baseline for the project.
The CACI consultants began to examine alternatives to the current business practices. Ideas were tossed around such as increasing the staffing levels, accepting applications and credit card numbers via email, and generating e-mail applications. All of the improvements were constructed with the following goals:
- Reduce application cycle time
- Increase quality
- Improve cost effectiveness
The following changes were made in the "To-Be" simulation model:
- Applications were accepted via email
- The underwriting rules and criteria for agents were modified
- An electronic underwriting worksheet was developed to allow for real-time status updates
- Increased staffing
After the "To-Be" model was run, there was a reduction in almost ten days in the application processing time (76 days down from 86 days). This reduction allowed for almost a 60% increase in the number of applications this company could process yearly. The "To-Be" scenario did raise operating costs close to 16% with the addition of the extra staffers. However, given the dramatic increase in the number of applications processed, this increase in cost was acceptable.
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Managing an Electronic Personnel Records System
Project: Managing an Electronic Personnel Records System
Client: Department of Defense
Project Statement:
This electronic personnel record system is an image-based system for the management of permanent military personnel records and provides on-line user access to the database. It provides for input, storage, retirement, modification and retrieval of personnel records via electronic images. These images are captured from paper and microfiche personnel records.
This Functional Assessment Analysis (FAA) project was initiated to provide a baseline from which to plan a reengineering of the records system. The original charter was to thoroughly document the system, which required analysis of its operations as well as the usage of the system and its data. The FAA team was tasked with documenting the flow of information and paper into the records system and the production operations of the scanning process. An "AS-IS" simulation model and report was to be provided at the conclusion of the project. Any metrics gathered or generated would be included, but the main thrust was the documentation of processes itself.
CACI Services Involvement:
The CACI FAA team consisted of a technical lead, two simulation analysts and a customer liaison.
SIMPROCESS software was used to build the "AS-IS" simulation model.
Deliverables:
CACI provided the client with a SIMPROCESS "AS-IS" simulation model, briefing slides, and a final report documenting findings from the model and personal research.
Results:
The FAA provided the client with some short-term recommendations to help with immediate problems, and long-term recommendations with an eye towards a future system reengineering. The recommendations focused on four aspects of the electronic records system:
- Data Quality
- Image Quality and Operating System Limitations
- Training of Users
- Other Improvement Ideas
The system users that were interviewed often questioned the completeness of the data. Specific comments with regard to the records system included documents being illegible, missing, mis-indexed, or filed in the wrong record. A couple of users stated that 100% of the records were in error. This appears to be an exaggeration, but the reality is that some data is missing. This could result from production errors before the documents are uploaded to the server, or possibly because the information was never sent in from the fleet (or individual). Whatever the reason, it is important to provide personnel with as complete a record as possible.
It was recommended that a Data Quality Assessment be undertaken to gain a general understanding of how many records contain some type of error. This will help the client determine the true stature of this problem.
Many interviewees made comments with regard to the quality of the images retrieved from the system. There are many reasons for poor images. Some of the original documents sent in for scanning are of poor quality. Some images were created from older microfiche. These images are the best available and there is nothing that can be done to alleviate the problem.
Electronic version of documents cannot be directly uploaded to the server because they need to contain authentic signatures. This results in the image being printed out and Faxed to the client before it is scanned into the electronic record. This process lessens the image quality and increases the time it takes for it to be included in the digital record. A system that would allow electronic files to be directly uploaded to the server (using electronic signatures) would allow individuals to update their records themselves and maintain the quality of the images. In addition, the DoD should be able to access individual records online. This would help sailors determine the missing documents (if any) in their record and reduce the amount of paperwork production receives.
This current system is not compliant with the latest Microsoft operating systems (WINDOWS NT 4, ME, and 2000), so its usage is often relegated to the older equipment. Thus the users of electronic records system often mentioned the speed of retrieval as a criticism of the system. It was recommended that the client investigate the options for integrating Windows NT and WINDOWS 2000 compliant drivers in the system as a temporary fix, versus delaying until the reengineered system is completed.
The speed of image retrieval is further complicated by the amount of duplicate images that appear in many of the personnel records. DoD members are aware that their digital records are often incomplete so they submit the same paperwork every time they are eligible for a promotion. This leads to an increased workload for production and more images in the record. The current system cannot recognize when a duplicate is entered into the record, so the analyst has to spend extra time sorting through many of the same images.
Users would benefit from a text-based portion of the system. This would allow improved search functions to pull up a specific group of records, or to search within an individual record. It would also reduce the amount of time it took to research records, especially when looking for very specific information. To this end, it was recommended that within a record, all similar reports be grouped together. Better organization within the actual file would allow the user to locate the information in a timelier manner.
Better training of the system operators would alleviate many of the concerns the FAA team heard over and over again. Some of these issues included:
- Waiting for many records to be retrieved, versus running a batch request the prior evening
- Printing and not knowing which printer was used
- Many users printing from the TEMPFILE as a work-around to a perceived printing problem with the current system
- Settings for screen resolution
- Perception that portions of the records were located in different locations
- Perception that on-going promotional selection boards inhibit the system performance
It was also suggested that an on-going series of e-mail announcements with user tips or a Frequently Asked Question (FAQ) section for the records system be provided as a low cost method of getting accurate information to the users or potential users.
The "AS-IS" simulation model uncovered several problems with the current process flow, which should be addressed during the future redesign. Many of the users wish more functions of the system could be automated. For example, confirmation letters sent to DoD personnel could be an automated task. In addition, there were some duplicate parts of the process that can be consolidated to make the system more efficient.
The "AS-IS" simulation model allowed the FAA team to visualize many of the complaints and problems users are currently having with the system and provide possible solutions for the future design.
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Purchasing Process Demonstration Model Description
The high degree of change in the business environment has created a new challenge for industrial and service enterprises. That challenge is to determine an organizational structure that minimizes administrative costs while maximizing service to its customers.
Traditionally, managers have used organization charts to describe hierarchical structures and evaluate business decisions regarding changes to the organization. Unfortunately, these tools are no longer adequate because they do not take into account the process view and dynamics associated with administrative processes. Documenting the processes, understanding the dynamics of the business processes and activity costs in a changing administrative process can only be achieved with a tool like SIMPROCESS.
This hierarchical model of a purchasing process consists of 5 major processes:
- Select Supplier
- Negotiate Terms and Pricing
- Prepare Purchase Order
- Place Purchase Order
- Audit Invoice
The demonstration model highlights one of the powerful features of SIMPROCESS - the ability to create alternative representations of a hierarchical business process. In this model, the purchasing process object consists of 3 alternative organizational representations.
Alternative 1 - Functional, Centralized Purchasing:
The purchasing process is performed by centralized, functional organization where the five functions are performed by staff dedicated to each function.
Alternative 2 - Product based, Decentralized Purchasing:
The purchasing process is performed by three decentralized, product organizations where the each product organization performs all 5 functions for its product line.
Alternative 3 - Hybrid Purchasing:
The purchasing process is performed by a hybrid organization where the supplier selection and terms and pricing functions are performed by a centralized organization; and the other 3 functions are performed by decentralized, product organizations.
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Demonstration Model - Purchasing (Purchase.spm)
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HTML - Output Of The Model
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HEALTH CARE
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Emergency Room Model Overview
Model Description:
The administrators of an Emergency Room need to find the optimal staffing levels. The Emergency Room must be able to treat its patients in a timely manner, yet not be overstaffed (which costs the hospital a lot of money). Therefore, a simulation model of the Emergency Room was built in SIMPROCESS in order to find these optimal staffing levels.
The simulation model diagramed the current process (As-Is). Patients arrive to the Emergency Room either through the entrance door or via ambulance. The hospital groups these patients into 3 categories: level 1, level 2, and level 3. Level 1 patients, such as heart attacks victims, are considered the most critical and need to be treated immediately. Level 2 and 3 patients go through a triage process where the hospital makes an initial assessment of their injuries. All patients are then transferred to an available room for treatment. They also go through a registration process either before or after treatment, depending on the severity of their injury. After initial medical treatment, the hospital can release the patient, or assign them to a room in the hospital for a longer stay.
Solution:
The Emergency Room needs to be adequately staffed to meet the numbers of incoming patients. Historical data was used to simulate the number of incoming patients, broken out into arrivals by day, evening, and morning, and the severity of their injuries. To satisfy these arrivals, some of the resources have fixed levels: 1 Charge Nurse, 1 Triage Nurse, and 13 wheelchairs. However, the other resources do not have fixed levels, and the SIMPROCESS model was used to find the optimal levels for each given the following constraints:
Administrative Clerks: Min 1, Max 4
Nurses: Min 1, Max 7
Patient Care Technician (PCT): Min 1, Max 4
Physicians: Min 1, Max 6
Emergency Rooms: Min 1, Max 20
In order to find the optimal levels of these resources, the SIMPROCESS optimization tool, OptQuest, was applied to the Emergency Room model. The objective for OptQuest was to "maximize the rooms in use", which would in effect reduce the number of unneeded resources and rooms. OptQuest ran 15 iterations of the Emergency Room model, and the optimal results were as follows:
Results:
Administrative Clerks = 4
Nurses = 6
Patient Care Technician (PCT) = 4
Physicians = 6
Emergency Rooms = 16
The hospital applied those staffing levels to the Emergency Room model and was able to determine the associated cost. In addition, a SIMPROCESS Dashboard was used to graphically illustrate the proposed staffing levels by showing the "Room Usage" and "Number of Patients Waiting". The Dashboard clearly showed the Emergency Room's resources would provide timely and appropriate service for all incoming patients.
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Demonstration Model - Emergency Room (EmergencyRoom.spm)
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Emergency Room Overview - Robo Flash Demo
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POINT OF DISPENSING (POD) MODEL
Model Description:
Staffing of Points Of Dispensing (PODs) of medications in a biological event requiring mass prophylaxis is problematic, because of expected outage due to illness among staff members and general shortages of medical personnel. Simulation analysis can assist with balancing staffing among POD functions for maximal dispensing throughput with the available staff.
In the POD simulation model, four types of patients are generated: Type E (Express), Type S (Screening needed), Type C (Counseling needed), Type T (Translation needed), and Type D (Divert to hospital). Each call type has its own rate of occurrence in the population, which is set at a generate activity inside the GenPatients simulation activity.
The POD is staffed by various types of medical resource persons:
Screeners, who determine what medications can be given to the patients
Consultants, who work with difficult patients to establish medical needs
Translators, who screen patients in languages other than English
Dispensers, who dispense prophylactic medications
Medical Evaluators, who divert sick patients to hospitals
The numbers of each type of staff member type available in the model are model parameters that the user can change each time the simulation is started. This is done by means of a dialog box that opens automatically. The user changes the model staff parameters from that dialog. Some typical staff counts are represented in the summary of five model runs shown in the table below:
For security reasons, no more than a specified number of patients can be in the POD at any time. Others must remain queued up outside the POD. Simulation study can be used to estimate line lengths at POD activities in relation to the staff complement. The POD model includes a number of relevant real-time plots that can be used to evaluate the line lengths in the dispensing queues. It can be seen from the Dispense Wait graph, for instance, that the number of patients in line for an allocation of 7 dispensing persons is often between 5 and 20 persons waiting. Increasing the number of dispensers to 9 reduces this waiting line to a more acceptable value of 1 or 2 patients.
The objective is to achieve maximum patient throughput over the 48-hour operation of the POD while using the minimum staff. The model patient throughput and POD processing times for the four parameter sets above are shown in the following table:
From this study, it could be concluded that the parameter staffing of Model 3 or Model 4 gives the greatest throughput for the staff required and allowable line length. Note that the additional Medication Dispensing staff member between Models 3 and 4 does not contribute significantly to throughput. This staff member could be transferred to another activity or another POD.
This model was built using advanced features available in SIMPROCESS Professional.
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Demonstration Model - POINT OF DISPENSING (POD) (POD09D.spm)
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Optimizing Rehabilitation Patient Scheduling
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This paper focuses on the use of process-simulation for optimizing rehabilitation patient scheduling. A proof of concept scheduling model for a major healthcare system provider in the Southeastern US, Eastern Health Systems, Inc. is constructed using a simulation tool and process characteristics like patient throughput, staff productivity, labor costs, etc. are compared to assess the effectiveness of centralized versus decentralized rehabilitation patient scheduling.
PURPOSE
The purpose of this proof of concept paper is to report results generated by rehabilitation patient scheduling alternatives. Workflow aspects like staff productivity, patient throughout, labor costs, etc. are compared to assess the effectiveness of multiple solutions.The model developed using the SIMPROCESS® simulation tool was based on data made available by healthcare experts. The model was built using an iterative approach and validated with the subject-matter-experts. Credibility of the simulation was established by comparing model results to the empirical (actual) set of data. A centralized scheduling alternative was further developed that is also discussed in this paper.
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
The primary goal of this proof of concept effort is to use process-simulation as a mechanism for experimenting with improvement ideas in the healthcare area. A centralized scheduling scenario is developed in this context and discussed in this paper. A second goal of this proof of concept initiative was to show that an engineered approach could potentially provide additional value to subsequent, traditional project management processes.
Examples of those processes include:
- Alternative options analysis for implementation strategies, including business process changes
- Identification of change management and training needs to support any changed business processes
- Product evaluation and selection for multiple vendor solutions
Readers will also learn about the following constructs
- Business Process Reengineering (BPR)
- Event-Simulation
- Queuing Theory
METHODOLOGY/APPROACH
In our approach to redesigning the rehabilitation outpatient workflow we used a repeatable process that is part of our BPR methodology. This is a formalized process that will help Eastern Health Systems, Inc. modernize and improve their processes/supporting information technology requirements. The SIMPROCESS® business process simulation product was used to speed up the data gathering, simulate "What-If" scenarios, and provide key metrics for decisions on "To-Be" process planning. Figure 1 below provides an overview of the BPR methodology.
Figure 1 - BPR Methodology
This approach is based on five phases that are executed iteratively through each business area to provide an incremental approach to BPR. The incremental approach has proven to be more risk-adverse than "big-bang" top-down approach to reengineering. The five phases defined are:
Understand the Current Healthcare Business Environment
This phase focuses on setting expectations, identifying scope of the project, defining goals of the BPR effort, and defining the problems to be focused on during the BPR analysis. The BPR was performed in increments to produce benefits rapidly and to reduce risk by breaking the process into more manageable pieces.
Model the Current Healthcare Processes ("As-Is")
This phase focuses on the analysis of the existing legacy healthcare processes and in developing the "As-Is" models. The legacy processes, organizational structure, and roles of the organizations were documented, measured, and baselined for comparison to the "What-If" models (centralized rehabilitation patient scheduling).Metrics required to support development of the "As-Is" rehabilitation patient scheduling model were collected through a series of interviews and workshop sessions with healthcare experts.
Items that were captured using the SIMPROCESS® simulation tool include:
Process flow
Frequency of actions
Level of effort for each action
Resources performing each action
Source of information for each action
Cost information
The first-cut "As-Is" rehabilitation patient scheduling model was validated and verified by the process owners of Eastern Health Systems, Inc. Validation involved review and consensus that the process flow, resources and level of effort were acceptable.Once the process flow was validated then the results of the simulation (quantities, task times, and staff productivity) were verified with the knowledge experts of Eastern Health Systems, Inc.The results of the "As-Is" rehabilitation patient scheduling model provided a quantitative baseline against which alternatives were evaluated.
Visualize and Measure Alternatives ("What-Ifs")
This phase focuses on the analysis of potential BPR improvements that were considered for implementation. Improvements typically include organizational changes, resource assignments, roles and responsibilities, process flow changes, insertion of technologies, improved access to information, and changes to policies/procedures. The "What-If" rehabilitation patient scheduling model was specifically developed to experiment with changes in the scheduling process. The centralized alternative model metrics were captured and compared to the baseline for potential quantitative benefits such as savings in cost and patient throughput.The most important metric produced from the simulations was Activity Based Cost (ABC). The ABC metric is a key ingredient in the development of a ROI for the "What-If" rehabilitation patient scheduling model and in justifying the development of the "To-Be" plans for implementation.
Plan the Transition ("To-Be")
This phase focuses on choosing the best value scenarios from the "What-If" modeling and developing implementation plans for them. The metrics from the "What-If" model will provide the basis for the choices and will assist Eastern Health Systems, Inc. in deciding which alternative should be implemented to get the most ROI. Other considerations are also factored into the decision process. Such factors as degree of reorganization, cost of training, cost of process implementation, time to implement, cost of new technology insertion, etc. are examples of additional input to the decision process. For example, a "What-If" scenario that clearly provides huge ROI benefits may be too risky to be implemented first due to the organizational or cultural impact. In this example, a lesser ROI-based "To-Be" implementation may be planned as the first increment to avoid risk of cultural change and revisited later in the implementation stages.
Manage Transition and Monitor Performance
This phase focuses on the actual implementation of the improvements. The simulation model will be used to assist in the identification of development phases and for planning the transition. The SIMPROCESS® simulation tool will be used to ensure that the process is not broken as changes are fielded and implemented.
For Model Overview and Simulation Results click here
MODEL OVERVIEW
Top-Level Processes
Figure 2 shows the top-level view of the healthcare simulation model. The model uses labels to display the number of (1) "Total Rehabilitation Patients", (2) "Total Rehabilitation Visits", and (3) "Average Rehabilitation Visits/Patient".Icons representing entities (i.e., patients) flow through the sub-processes where delays capture the amount of work time required for resources (i.e., clerks, doctors, etc.) to perform a given task. For this proof of concept effort the processes considered "core" are (1) Rehabilitation Scheduling and (2) Rehabilitation Therapy.
Figure 2 - Top Level Processes
"Rehabilitation Scheduling" Process Box Icon Details
The rehabilitation scheduling process box icon contains the following sub-processes: (1) Scheduling and (2) Registration. See Figure 3.
Figure 3 - Details of "Rehabilitation Scheduling" Process Box Icon
"As-Is" Rehabilitation Patient Scheduling Alternative (Decentralized)
Figure 4 below represents the details of the legacy scheduling process alternative (Scheduling Process Box Icon-Alt1).
Figure 4 - "As Is" Rehabilitation Patient Scheduling Alternative
"What-If" Rehabilitation Patient Scheduling Alternative (Centralized)
Figure 5 below represents the details of the centralized scheduling process alternative (Scheduling Process Icon-Alt2). The "pre-registration" step is removed and included as part of the "collect patient data" activity.
Figure 5 - "What-If" Rehabilitation Patient Scheduling Alternative
Model Settings
This proof of concept model was set to run for a ten-day period for one replication. Costs were reported at the end of the simulation run. Statistics were captured for the patient arrivals, patients in process, and patients completed.
RESULTS: For the results obtained from the healthcare simulation model click here
CONCLUSION
The healthcare simulation model provided insight into the process map and allowed for the subject-matter-experts to refine the flow based on the results of the baseline. Model metrics were collected through a set of interviews and workshop sessions and performance characteristics such as rehabilitation patient turn-around-time and labor costs were discussed with the knowledge experts periodically. An alternative was further developed to experiment with a centralized rehabilitation patient scheduling solution.
The results indicated that there were no major bottlenecks or discrepancies with the proposed solution. The composite labor cost decreased by 30% with a 60% increase in patient throughput.
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Architecture Analysis & Modeling
Project: Architecture Analysis and Modeling for Banfield
Client: Banfield of Medical Management International, Inc., Portland, OR
Project Statement:
Banfield, a subsidiary of Medical Management International, Inc., has a requirement to conduct an analysis of its existing system architecture (system architecture is defined as the servers, clients, network, data, and applications components that make up the system). The existing architecture consists of dialup lines and local area networks that support the store Foxpro applications and the reporting to headquarters in Portland, OR. The analysis must identify key information to upgrade and evolve the architecture based on future plans with Pet-II and to share networking assets with PetSmart. Pet-II is the next generation of applications needed to better support current and future business plans with the Banfield information systems in the hospitals and headquarters.
CACI Services Involvement:
The objective of this engagement is for CACI to provide analysis and planning support to the Banfield architecture and application team to better determine the requirements the new architecture. The analysis will include support in identifying and validating possible choices and impacts of varying client/server application and data base architectures within the new Pet-II information system and any associated networking issues. Since the application and data base architectures of Pet-II may drive performance and bandwidth requirements on the networks and servers in the future, care must be taken in the planning for network upgrades to meet those capacity requirements.
Deliverables:
CACI provided Banfield with four COMNET III "What-If" simulation models, and a written report documenting findings from the model/personal research.
Results:
Performance results from the four "What-If" simulation models indicate planned infrastructure can support Pet II at a load level up to 3 times the expected average load.
Simulation models also indicated the 56 kbps V.90 modem uplink being heavily used in large hospitals (54%) during an average hour.
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HUMAN RESOURCES
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Defense Integrated Military Human Resources System (DIMHRS)
Client: Naval Reserve Information Systems Office (NRISO), New Orleans, LA
Project Statement:
CACI was tasked to develop a prototype model based upon the Navy Enlisted Accession process as documented in the flow and IDEF diagrams. CACI was further asked to define the process and gather data from the user community to transform the prototype model into an operation process simulation that can be used to provide benchmark operational and activity-based costs.
CACI Services Involvement:
The objective of this engagement is for CACI to:
- Prototype a Simulation model of the Enlisted Accession Process from the existing "To-Be" diagrams and process descriptions
- Construct demonstrations of the prototype simulations and brief DIMHRS decision-makers and constituents to gain confidence the use of simulation techniques to better quantify and validate estimated savings and ROI from "To-Be" process models
- Convert the prototype into a realistic model of the "To-Be" process for DIMHRS and capture some usable metrics for validating the "To-Be" alternatives
- Develop plans for incrementally implementing the reengineered process (es) and/or process changes
- Monitor and re-baseline the process model with the actual improvements realized after implementation
Deliverables:
CACI provided NRISO with one Simprocess® "To-Be" simulation model, and a written report documenting findings from the model/personal research.
Results:
Performance results from the simulation model supported planned infrastructure. An ERP alternative was modeled where manual activities were automated using PeopleSoft modules. Data entry times for all PeopleSoft panels/screens were incorporated in the alternative. Non-value added activities (activities redundant in nature) were identified and eliminated. The transition resulted in cost savings of several hundreds per applicant.
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Navy Enlisted/Officer Occupational Classification System
(NEOCS/NOOCS)
Client: Navy Manpower Analysis Center (NAVMAC)
Project Statement:
Navy Enlisted Occupational Classification System (NEOCS) is the method the Navy uses to identify enlisted personnel skills and the requirements associated with these skills. The system forms the basis for actions taken concerning enlisted personnel planning, manpower management, accession, training, promotion, distribution, assignment, and mobilization. NEOCS consists of the Enlisted Rating Structure and the Navy Enlisted Classification (NEC) Structure.
Navy Officer Occupational Classification System (NOOCS) is the method the Navy uses to identify skills, education, training, experience and capabilities related to both officer personnel and manpower requirements. This system forms the basis for officer personnel planning, manpower management, accession, training, promotion, distribution, career development and mobilization. NOOCS consists of four major subsystems: the Designator/Grade structure, the Navy Officer Billet Classification (NOBC) structure, the Subspecialty (SSP) structure, and the Additional Qualification Designation (AQD) structure.
The scope of the project was to construct a SIMPROCESS model of the NEOCS and NOOCS process and provide a master re-engineering plan. The NEOCS and NOOCS process was defined as those activities that occur, once a proposed change has been identified and formally sent to NAVMAC for processing. Additionally, the model focused on NAVMAC actions. The specific processes, work time and costs associated with non-NAVMAC activities were not included. (e.g., The analysis steps performed by the NEOCS board were not documented, timed, or costed.)
CACI Services Involvement:
The CACI BPR team consisted of a project lead, one simulation analyst, a part time (on-site) analyst, and a customer liaison. CACI's SIMPROCESS simulation software was used to build the NEOCS/NOOCS "As-Is" and "What-If" simulation models.
Deliverables:
CACI provided NAVMAC with an "As-Is" simulation model, 3 "What-If" simulation models, a final report, final briefing slides and presentation, tracking spreadsheet, and 2 resource matrices.
Results:
After completing the customer interviews and beginning the "As-Is" model construction, the current process' faults became readily apparent. The requests were spending an inordinate amount of time in review, and sitting in "in-baskets." The process was also full of many small and menial, but easily automated tasks. The team then developed three concept models to alleviate the current process faults. The first alternative aimed at streamlining the process through policy and/or procedural changes. The second alternative was based on the implementation of an internet workflow system. The third alternative was a combination of the previous two models integrating the benefits of both of the previous alternatives. The team then constructed three simulation models based on the implementation of the alternatives. Based on the results obtained from the three "What-If" simulation models the BPR team was able to recommend an alternative system for executing the NEOCS/NOOCS process. The chosen alternative was based on the combination model, specifically an internet workflow system that incorporated the policy and procedural changes. The model yielded significant quantitative improvements.
- Reduced the total cycle times of NEC establishment, revision, and deletion requests (NEOCS) by 23-39%
- Reduced the resource utilizations of the NEOCS personnel by 14-33%
- Reduced the total cycle times of SSPs, NOBCs, Designators, and AQDs (NOOCS) by 24-42%
- Reduced the resource utilization of the NOOCS analyst by 41%
- Significantly reduced the number of all types of requests in the system
The team also developed a tracking spreadsheet for the NAVMAC staff to help keep track of pending requests and collect data, and to serve as an interim fix until the new system could be implemented.
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Total Force Manpower Management System (TFMMS)
Client: Navy Manpower Analysis Center (NAVMAC), Millington, TN
Project Statement:
The Total Force Manpower Management System (TFMMS) is a classified mainframe manpower system that contains requirements, authorizations, and end strength data for Navy officer, enlisted, and civilian personnel. CACI was tasked to provide business process reengineering support to the Navy Manpower Analysis Center (NAVMAC) in Millington, TN. Primary objectives were: a) development of a SIMPROCESS "As-Is" simulation model to asses performance characteristics of TFMMS and b) keep the simulation model current by updating it on a quarterly basis with respective changes to the process/staffing level.
The business process reengineering (BPR) team followed CACI's repeatable methodology for executing analysis of TFMMS. This included the initial interviews with NAVMAC management so that the client understood our approach and, more importantly, scope and bound of the analysis. The BPR team then worked with NAVMAC to outline a proposed interview sequence that included the management as well as staff. It was important to discuss the process with the people currently performing the work, as that allowed the team to get a view of the complications and problems being observed on a regular basis.
The SIMPROCESS "As-Is" simulation model was developed incrementally (after every session, the model was enhanced to reflect the latest information). This allowed the BPR team to validate and clarify some aspects of the model as its structure was taking shape. It also allowed process workers the opportunity to gather some metrics and provide them to the team on subsequent visits.
Results from the simulation model were validated with various levels of NAVMAC management. This ensured that the process was being captured accurately and at a sufficient level of detail to support the modeling of two "What-If" alternatives.
CACI Services Involvement:
The CACI BPR team consisted of a technical lead, one simulation analyst and a customer liaison.
SIMPROCESS software was used to construct simulation models.
Deliverables:
CACI provided NAVMAC with one SIMPROCESS "As-Is", two "What-If" simulation models, and a written report documenting findings from the model/personal research.
Results:
Performance results from the "As-Is" simulation model compared well to historical data validating the process flow (throughput time and count from model were in the order of less than a 5% deviation from historical data).
Performance results from the two "What-If" simulation models indicated a saving in throughput time and staffing costs.
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Demonstration Model - Human Resources (Human Resources.spm)
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HTML - Output Of The Model
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CALL CENTER
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Call Center Model Description
Staffing of Call Centers has become a important issue for many
companies today. Balancing staffing levels with the need to maintain
the high level of service that consumers demand, requires complex
analysis.
In this model, three types of calls are generated: Type A, TypeB and
Type C. Each call type has its own cyclical schedule, at a generate
activity inside the Generate Phone Calls process.
The center is staffed by 3 levels of Technicians: X, Y, and Z.
- Question Type A can be answered by any of the three technicians
- Question Type B can be answered by a Y or Z Technician
- Question Type C can be answered only by a Z Technician
The numbers of each type of Technician available in the model are
model parameters. Each time the simulation is started, a dialog box
will open. The user change any of the model parameters from that
dialog.
By default, the incoming call buffer can contain no more than 10
calls on hold. If 10 callers are already on hold, the next incoming
call will get a busy signal and be dropped. The maximum number
of calls the buffer can hold is also a model parameter, the user will
be prompted to change the queue's capacity each time the model is
run.
If a call is on hold for too long (in the buffer) it will hang up
(renege). The renege time for each type of call is set by a model
parameter and can be changed each time the model is run.
This model can be run using SIMPROCESS Lite. It was built using
advanced features available in SIMPROCESS Professional.
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Demonstration Model - Call Center (CallCenter.spm)
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Help Desk Demonstration Model
Today, customers are much more demanding and cost-conscious than they are 5 or 10 years ago.
Increasing competitive pressures make it a tough challenge for service enterprises to maximize service
quality while minimizing costs. Such performance metrics as waiting time and activity costs
are critical to providing quality service and strategically pricing services.
Typically, staffing and communication technology decisions for a customer service process have
been made by analytical tools which fail to take into account the randomness and system dynamics
that result in queuing. SIMPROCESS provides a complete set of statistical tools such as probability
distributions, Data Analysis, and Design of Experiments; and advanced modeling features such as
cyclical generation of entities, and resource downtimes.
This demonstration model shows how SIMPROCESS can be used for modeling the random nature
of a Help Desk. The Help Desk utilizes three types of Customer Service Representatives (CSR's) to
handle incoming customer calls. These CSR's are modeled as resources. The three type of CSR's
are:
CSRhelp
Customer Service Representative trained to handle calls regarding transfer of ownership, power
outage and billing inquiries.
CSRpage
Customer Service Representative trained to handle calls regarding paging inquiries.
CSR
Customer Service Representative cross-trained to handle calls regarding transfer of ownership,
power outage, billing and paging inquiries.
The hierarchical business process "Help Desk" contains two alternative ways of utilizing the same
total number of resources. The business objective of this exercise is to best utilize the CSR's to
minimize the time customers spend on hold waiting for an available Representative.
Alternative 1
This is the "As-Is" process. When a call arrives, it is answered by the first available CSRhelp. The
Representative determines what the inquiry is regarding. The CSRhelp then either passes the call to
"Desk 2" if it is a paging inquiry, or else handles the call. If the call is passed to Desk 2, the customer
is put on hold until a CSRpage is available.
Alternative 2
This is the "To Be" version of the process. When a call arrives, it is answered by the first available
CSR. The Representative determines what the inquiry is regarding and services the customer
regardless of the category.
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Demonstration Model - Help Desk (HelpDesk.spm)
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LOGISTICS/SUPPLY CHAIN
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H2O Water Supply Company
Problem Definition:
H2O is a local water supply and delivery company. It owns a fleet of 30 tanker trucks for delivering water to customer. There are 3 sizes of the truck tanks: size A is 12 cubic meters, size B is 18 cubic meters, and size C is 28 cubic meters. Currently, there are 9 trucks with tanks of size C, 12 trucks with tanks of size B, and 9 trucks of size A.
To place order, a customer must come in person to the H2O office. He should first pay for the size of tank he wants to order, receive a copy of the receipt, proceed to the water station operator and hand him the receipt copy, and wait in the waiting area until a tanker truck of the required size is filled with water at any of the available pumps. Currently, there are 7 pumps installed at H2O. When the truck is ready, the customer name is called and he leaves the station escorted by his truck. After the truck empties its water tank at the customer's location, it returns immediately to the station and becomes ready for new orders. Problems water reported in this system when no trucks of the size requested by a customer are available. In this case, the customer would have to wait until at least one truck of the size desired returns and is filled with water again. These delays can, often, be very long and it is common that customers either get frustrated and leave after getting their money back, or closing lime comes before any truck of the requested size has arrived.
Goal:
Given past operational data, H2O management would like to determine how many trucks of each tank size it should maintain in order to reduce the average delay time before a customer's order is satisfied (Davg) to less than 15 minutes, given the current number of installed pumps. It is also desired to know the required number of pumping stations to maintain in order to reduce (Davg) below 15 minutes given the current number of trucks in the company's fleet. The management would then decide whether is cheaper its goal of limiting (Davg) by buying more trucks or by installing more pumps.
Assumptions:
Customer interarrival times are exponentially distributed with 10 minutes between 2pm and 8pm, and with mean 20 minutes between 8am (opening time) and 2pm and between 8pm and 10pm (closing time)
Truck filling times are exponentially distributed with means: 10 minutes, 12 minutes, 20 minutes for tank sizes A, B and C, respectively
Truck delivery time is normally distributed with mean 35 minutes and standard deviation 2
The order processing time is uniformly distributed from 3 minutes to 5 minutes. Assume a FIFO queue is formed in case of congestion
Ignore fueling and maintenance operation of trucks and pumps
The probability that a customer will request a size A tank = 0.3, the probability that a customer will request a size B tank = 0.4, and the probability that a customer will request a size C tank = 0.3
Increasing the number of trucks will follow the same ratio that the probability that a customer request a size. That means 0.3 for truck A, 0.4 for truck B, and 0.3 for truck C
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Demonstration Model - (H2O.spm)
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HTML - Output of the Model
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IBM PC Company Supply Chain
Background:
In early 1990’s, IBM PC Company in Europe faced a number of challenges, such as frequent price cuts, rapid customer order response times, and a steady arrival of new products and features, by increasingly agile and aggressive competitors, which were eroding IBM's market share. Also, poor forecasting caused critical shortages of popular products and excess supplies of others.
Primary Goals:
Reduce Operational Costs
Increase Customer Responsiveness
The purpose of the modeling and simulation study was to evaluate various demand and supply planning alternatives and analyze the impact on inventory costs and customer service levels. The alternatives evaluated were: 1) Build-to-Order, 2) Local Customization, and Build-to-Plan
Solution:
Using SIMPROCESS products and support, the IBM analysts developed a supply chain simulation model that allowed detailed modeling of various business processes of a manufacturing and distribution supply chain. The team defined the supply chain in terms of seven major process objects:
Customer
Manufacturing
Distribution
Transportation
Inventory Planning
Forecasting
Supply Planning
Creating a model of the European PC operations was then a matter of integrating these objects into a network that represented all the relevant business processes and their interactions. The next step was to collect appropriate data that would drive the simulation. Once the model was validated, a number of experiments were performed to evaluate alternatives under different market scenarios.
To analyze the output of the simulation model, statistics were collected on the following performance
measures:
Cycle time
Serviceability
Shipments
Inventory
Fill Rate
Stockout Rate
Resource Costs and Utilization
Results:
Reduced Distribution Costs by 40 Million per year
Improved Customer Service Level
Ultimately, the simulation analysis led to significant changes in both manufacturing and distribution, including the following:
Adoption of a build-to-order (BTO) manufacturing strategy
Direct-ship distribution process that bypassed costly country distribution centers
Rejection of a popular idea that proved to be cost-inefficient, which is the introduction of a new late-customization (LC) assembly plant on the European continent.
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Demonstration Model for IBM - Supply Chain (Supply.spm)
Supply Chain Model Description:
For an industrial enterprise, one of key business processes is the
supply chain process. The primary goals of supply chain management
are to maintain high service levels while minimizing costs.
The key problem in supply chain management is how to balance
inventory. Variability in demand and process times, complexity of
the supply chain objects, and system dynamics create uncertainty
that can only be modeled and analyzed with a tool like SIMPROCESS.
This demonstration model represents a typical supply chain for an
industrial enterprise with 4 factories, 3 suppliers, and 4 customers
(distributors) in the United States. This high level model of the supply
chain demonstrates how SIMPROCESS can help define the
major processes, resources, and entities involved in providing products
to customers. The model also demonstrate the power of the
hierarchical simulation capability of SIMPROCESS. To view the
power of hierarchical modeling, drill down into the West Coast factory
(F1). Below is a brief description of the model elements.
Customers
Customers demand products from the factories. The customer process
defines the frequency and quantity of demand from the factories.
Suppliers
Suppliers supply raw materials (supplies or components) to the factories.
Each supplier produces different types of raw materials and
ships to each factory.
Factories
Factories assemble the components, package the goods (inventory)
and ship them to customers. A factory typically ships to customers
in its geographic region. For example, the west coast factory
receives 80 percent of its orders from the west coast customer and
20 percent of its orders from the southwest customer.
Such a model of a supply chain can be enhanced to answer questions
such as:
- What if the demand for certain products from the east coast
supplier doubles?
- What if the west coast supplier is having manufacturing problems
with a product line?
- What if we use alternative transportation carriers to deliver
products to customers?
- What if we outsource the assembly process?
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Inventory Model Description
This sample model demonstrates an Inventory Pull and Manufacturing system. The process is characterized by the Reorder Points and Reorder Quantities defined for each resource in the supply chain. There are four steps in the supply chain: Warehouse, Assembly, Component1 Vendor and Component2 Vendor, and the Raw Material Vendor. Inventory is pulled only when it is needed (there is insufficient stock to fill the order or the Reorder Point has been reached).
The process begins with a customer order of random size. The Warehouse first attempts to fill the order from its inventory. If the customer order can't be filled, more Finished product is pulled from Assembly (based on the Reorder Quantity), and the customer order is placed on backorder. If the customer order can be filled from Warehouse inventory, the model will fill the order and check to see if the Reorder Point has been reached as a result of that order. If the Reorder Point has been reached, more inventory will be pulled from Assembly.
The Assembly and Component Vendor steps work in a similar fashion. After each order is received the model checks to see if any Reorder Points have been reached and pulls more inventory if necessary. In the manufacturing sub-processes each item in the customer order is manufactured one at a time. The Raw Material Vendor is not being modeled in detail, because it is not a focus of this study. A Delay is simply used to model the effect on the Component Vendors.
Using the model parameters dialog that appears when you run the model, you can experiment with different Reorder Points and Quantities to evaluate their effect on the system (inventory levels, and the delay to the customer). The goal is to minimize the amount of Inventory held without impacting the customer negatively (increase order cycle time). Finding the optimal Reorder Point and Quantities for each node in the supply chain is the goal. Real time plots can be used to view inventory levels and the effect of a change in a Reorder point or quantity.
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Demonstration Model - Inventory (Inventory.spm)
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HTML - Output of the Model
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SIMPROCESS FEATURES
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Electronic Commerce Demonstration Model
Client: National Retail Federation Conference
Project Statement:
This model was presented at a conference as a demonstration of how SIMPROCESS can be applied to eComm implementation. It represents a fictitious company that receives orders for three products: A, B, and C. In the model, each order will be processed twice, once using the "Brick and Mortar" approach, and the other time incorporating real-time access to the company's inventory levels, a "Click and Order" approach.
The focus of this model was to show how the ability to have real-time access to existing inventory provides a better estimate of the delivery date. If an item is in stock, it will be delivered faster, and more accurate information of inventory levels will lead to higher accuracy of the predicted delivery time.
The model does not have much depth, but it shows the "As-Is" process (Brick and Mortar Process) and the "To-Be" approach (Click and Order Process) running at the same time with the order numbers updated on the screen. Building to a 'real' model from a demo version would allow the user to build the business case and determine the number of operators needed, as well as quantify savings.
CACI Services Involvement:
SIMPROCESS was used to build the simulation model
Deliverables:
Model was for demonstration purposes only.
Results:
This demo model was run for approximately two and a half years (simulation time). In that time, 67,737 orders were placed for either product A, B, or C. The two different processed produced dramatically different results.
The Brick and Mortar Process predicted 75% of the items ordered were in stock, and therefore would be delivered UPS within two business days. The other 25% were not in stock, so they would be delivered within five business days. However, when the simulation was run, the company was not that accurate with its results. Almost 15% of their deliveries were later than promised. The company predicted 75% of the items would be delivered within two days, but only 70% actually were. Likewise, 25% of the orders were 5-day deliveries, but only 15% arrived in time.
The Click and Order Process produced much more favorable results. The company predicted 80% of the orders were in stock and would be delivered within two business days. The simulation run showed close to 78% of those orders arrived in the time promised. In addition, the company promised the other 20% of the orders would be delivered within five business days, and close to 17% were delivered in this time frame. In the Click and Order Process, only 5% of all orders arrived later than expected.
The strength of simulation modeling comes from comparing the two processes. The Brick and Mortar Process produced three times as many late deliveries as the Click and Order Process, a total of 6,741 late d | | | |
